On December 3, 2024, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar addressed “recent developments in the India-China border areas,” emphasizing that peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is essential for bilateral ties. This statement follows significant progress in de-escalating tensions in the Aksai Chin region, marking a shift from constant escalation to a path of resolution through negotiations. The United States should actively support these efforts, as stability in the region aligns with broader global security and economic interests.
Context of the Aksai Chin Agreement
The recent thaw in relations coincided with the October 23 meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the BRICS summit in Russia. This was their first face-to-face encounter since 2019. Days earlier, both countries agreed to ease tensions in two sectors of the disputed Aksai Chin region following years of parallel diplomatic and military talks triggered by the deadly Galwan River clash in June 2020. The agreement restored pre-2020 patrolling arrangements, a significant step forward but only the beginning of a long journey toward sustained peace.
Aksai Chin: A Strategic Flashpoint
Aksai Chin, also referred to as the Karakoram plateau, is a key sector along the LAC. The region’s contested status stems from its strategic importance and its harsh, high-altitude terrain. Following the 2020 Galwan incident, China deployed approximately 20,000 soldiers from its Western Theater Command, supported by advanced infrastructure and new technologies such as drones and light tanks. These deployments tested the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) logistical and operational capabilities while providing critical training in extreme conditions.
The PLA’s operations in Aksai Chin align with China’s broader military strategy, which includes air and naval exercises in the South and East China Seas. These activities have enhanced China’s readiness while also probing Indian and U.S. responses. Similarly, India has bolstered its own infrastructure along the LAC, demonstrating its resolve to counter China’s assertiveness.
Key Takeaways from PLA Operations
China’s extended deployment in Aksai Chin has provided valuable insights for its military planners:
- Morale and Legacy: Deployments have bolstered troop morale by linking contemporary operations to the PLA’s historical campaigns.
- Organizational Insights: The PLA has refined its doctrines, small-unit leadership, and operational tactics through real-world experience.
- Command and Control: Extended operations have tested the PLA’s ability to manage dispersed units in challenging environments.
- Logistics: Sustaining large forces at extreme altitudes has showcased China’s logistical capabilities, primarily reliant on road and rail networks.
- Technological Integration: The deployment of modern systems, including Type-15 tanks and advanced drones, has enhanced the PLA’s operational capabilities.
The Path to Resolution
The October 2024 settlement focuses on the northern Depsang Plains and southern Demchok areas. Both sides agreed to restore pre-2020 troop positions and dismantle temporary structures. Coordinated patrolling schedules aim to prevent future confrontations. However, significant questions remain, including the status of out-of-area PLA units, the establishment of buffer zones, and the role of neutral observers in monitoring compliance.
Balancing Competition and Cooperation
India’s evolving strategy reflects its desire to compartmentalize its border dispute with China while maintaining robust trade relations. Despite heightened tensions since 2020, bilateral trade has grown, underscoring both nations’ pragmatic approach to preserving economic interests.
The United States has an opportunity to support this de-escalation process. Encouraging confidence-building measures, such as involving neutral observers from Quad countries or other third parties, could help sustain progress. For instance, India’s upcoming 2025 Regional Ports and Transportation Conference offers a platform to promote cooperative mechanisms.
Recommendations for U.S. Policy
- Support De-escalation: Encourage continued dialogue between India and China while offering technical or diplomatic assistance to monitor compliance with border agreements.
- Promote Multilateral Involvement: Advocate for third-party observers to ensure transparency and build trust between the parties.
- Strengthen Regional Stability: Leverage India’s leadership in forums like the Quad to foster broader cooperation on shared security and economic goals.
- Preserve Economic Ties: Recognize India’s economic priorities and avoid actions that could hinder its balancing act between economic growth and security.
