As the Trump administration takes office on January 20, 2025, among the myriad challenges it faces, China’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea stands out as one of the most pressing. For decades, Beijing has steadily expanded its footprint in these resource-rich waters, constructing and militarizing artificial islands while flouting international law and undermining the sovereignty of neighboring states. With trillions of dollars in trade passing through the South China Sea annually, China’s aggressive maritime incursions have established strategic positions to exert political, economic, and military leverage. Over the past 18 months, Beijing’s expansionist tactics have intensified, particularly targeting the Philippines, a key U.S. treaty ally. This escalation is no coincidence; the Philippines is at a critical juncture in its national security, defense, and foreign policy trajectory, making it a central player in the Indo-Pacific’s balance of power.
Faced with China’s provocations, the Philippines has adopted a determined stance. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration has prioritized internal stability, modernized territorial defense capabilities, and advanced a transformative foreign policy agenda. The government has also bolstered its legal framework to counter China’s actions, notably through the passage of the Philippines Maritime Zones Act and the Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act in November 2024. These laws assert the nation’s maritime entitlements under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the 2016 arbitral ruling, while delineating navigational routes through the archipelago. In tandem, the military conducted joint exercises to enhance its capacity to defend its territorial claims. Beijing predictably responded with hostility, but Manila’s efforts reflect a commitment to both enforcing its legal rights and ensuring regional stability.
The Philippines has also made significant strides in fostering regional and international partnerships. A trilateral summit in April 2024 between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines underscored a shift in Asia’s security architecture, with Manila emerging as a key player. Strengthened by renewed confidence in the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty and expanded access for U.S. forces to Philippine bases, Manila has also deepened ties with Japan, Australia, and other regional partners. Recent security agreements with nations like Singapore, Vietnam, India, and Germany further highlight the Philippines’ proactive approach to countering Beijing’s “slow boil” strategy. Through assertive transparency, Manila has exposed China’s aggressive tactics, using public documentation and strategic communications to rally both domestic resolve and international support.
Internally, the Philippines has made significant progress in addressing long-standing domestic security threats. Decades-long communist insurgencies have been weakened, while a historic peace process in Mindanao has brought unprecedented stability to the south. The establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region and ongoing decommissioning of former combatants represent pivotal steps toward lasting peace. Yet challenges remain. The May 2025 elections, including the Bangsamoro’s first regional elections, will test the resilience of these peace gains, as well as the government’s ability to manage election-related violence and foreign interference.
The upcoming year is critical for the Philippines’ trajectory. The government must deliver tangible benefits from the peace process in Mindanao, including infrastructure development, access to basic services, and security improvements. This is essential not only to maintain internal stability but also to free up military resources for external defense. At the same time, Manila must navigate a volatile domestic landscape marked by political feuds, budgetary constraints, and natural disasters, all while managing a growing threat from China’s influence operations. These campaigns aim to undermine social trust, polarize communities, and destabilize democratic institutions — tactics emblematic of authoritarian regimes.
The Philippines’ geographic position makes it a linchpin of U.S.-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific. Situated at the heart of the First Island Chain, its proximity to Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Southeast Asia’s key maritime routes underscores its strategic importance. Historically plagued by internal instability and economic mismanagement, the country is now beginning to realize its potential as a shaper of regional dynamics. Its assertive posture, coupled with growing regional influence and international partnerships, positions the Philippines as a key player in preserving peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
For the United States, bolstering the U.S.-Philippines alliance is imperative. Supporting Manila’s efforts to modernize its military, counter Chinese aggression, and uphold international law will not only advance U.S. interests but also reinforce the rules-based order in the region. As the Philippines rises to meet the challenges of the 21st century, its success will have profound implications for the broader Indo-Pacific and the future of U.S.-China relations.
